The semiconductor world just shifted on its axis. In a move that has left both Wall Street analysts and Washington lawmakers buzzing, President Donald Trump has officially greenlit the export of Nvidia’s high-performance H200 AI chips to China—but with a massive, unprecedented catch.
For investors, the question isn’t just about “if” Nvidia can sell to China anymore; it’s about the “how much” and the “at what cost.” With a new 25% government “cut” on sales and strict volume caps now in play, the H200 saga is the most critical factor in determining Nvidia’s (NVDA) stock price forecast for 2026.
The Trump Chip Trade Announcement: A “Deal” Like No Other
On January 13, 2026, the Department of Commerce codified a policy shift that effectively reverses the Biden-era blanket ban on advanced AI exports. The headline? Nvidia can now sell its H200 chips—the workhorse of the Hopper generation—to vetted Chinese commercial customers.
However, this isn’t a return to the “wild west” of free trade. The administration has implemented a unique “national security fee” structure:
- The 25% Cut: The U.S. government will receive 25% of the revenue from these sales.
- The Supply Cap: Shipments to China cannot exceed 50% of the volume sold to U.S. domestic customers.
- Mandatory Testing: Every chip bound for China must first detour through U.S. soil for independent, third-party verification, triggering a 25% tariff.
Why the H200 Matters (And Why Blackwell is Staying Home)
The H200 is roughly six times more powerful than the “HGX H20” chips Nvidia previously designed to skirt older restrictions. While China is desperate for this compute power to train Large Language Models (LLMs), the U.S. is keeping its “crown jewels”—the newer Blackwell and Rubin architectures—strictly off-limits.
| Chip Model | Status for China Export | Performance Level |
|---|---|---|
| H20 (Legacy) | Phase-out | Low (Throttled) |
| H200 (Current) | Approved (with 25% Tariff) | High (Hopper Gen) |
| Blackwell (B200) | Banned | Ultra-High (Next-Gen) |
| Rubin | Banned | Frontier-Level |
Nvidia Stock Price Forecast 2026: The Numbers
Despite the 25% “tax” the government is taking, analysts remain remarkably bullish. Why? Because a 75% slice of a massive Chinese market is better than 100% of zero.
Expert Price Targets
- Wolfe Research: Reiterated an Outperform rating with a $250 price target.
- Evercore ISI: Sees a potential surge to $352 by the end of 2026, citing a possible 79% jump in revenue.
- Consensus View: Most Wall Street firms see a median target of $250–$275, representing a 35%–45% upside from current levels ($183 range).
The Revenue Math
Before the ban, China represented a significant chunk of Nvidia’s data center revenue. If Nvidia successfully ships 1 to 2 million H200 units to China in 2026 at an estimated $27,000 per chip, even after the 25% government cut, the company could see a net revenue addition of $20 billion to $40 billion.
Risks to the Forecast: The “Beijing Factor”
There is a massive elephant in the room: China might not want them. Reports suggest that Beijing is urging its domestic tech giants (like Alibaba and Tencent) to rely on homegrown chips from Huawei and Biren. There is a fear that relying on U.S. hardware—especially hardware that can be “switched off” by future policy shifts—is a strategic liability for China.
“The demand from Chinese customers is very high, but we are waiting for purchase orders, not just government approvals.” — Jensen Huang, Nvidia CEO (CES 2026)
Expert Tips for Investors
- Watch the Margins: Keep a close eye on quarterly reports to see if Nvidia or the Chinese customers are absorbing the 25% tariff cost.
- Monitor U.S. Supply: Since exports are capped at 50% of U.S. volume, any slowdown in American AI spending will automatically throttle Nvidia’s China revenue.
- The “Sovereign AI” Trend: Don’t just look at China. Nations like Saudi Arabia and Japan are building their own AI clusters, which provides a “safety net” if the China trade deal sours.
Conclusion: Is Nvidia a Buy?
The Trump trade announcement is a classic “mixed bag” that ultimately leans bullish. By opening a regulated pathway to the world’s second-largest AI market, the administration has unlocked a massive revenue stream that was previously written off. While the 25% tariff is a heavy toll, Nvidia’s dominance in the “technology stack” makes them almost indispensable.
Nvidia Stock Forecast Summary: We expect NVDA to break the $250 mark by late 2026, driven by the dual engines of U.S. Blackwell deployment and the resumed flow of H200s into China.
